On a sick bed

Measures to revive manufacturing are urgently needed

India is lucky to have two able technocrats at the helm of its economic affairs: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is an Oxford alumnus while Finance Minister P.Chidambaram is a graduate from Harvard. Yet despite their helmsmanship, the economic horizons of the country have remained cloudy for some time now. That is in sharp contrast to the economic recovery being staged in the United States and China's steadfast growth, even though it has moderated of late. India's economic signals, on the other hand, have reasons to raise eyebrows: the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) reveal that industrial growth has “slowed to a 20-year-low of 1 per cent in 2012-13” compared to 2.9 per cent in 2011-12. Clearly, the country is paying a heavy price for its overdependence on the service sector and showing neglect to the infrastructure and manufacturing sectors.

India’s premier rating agency Crisil says that the current situation is reminiscent of the crisis year of 1991-92 when industrial output grew by a mere 0.6 per cent whereas manufacturing output contracted by 0.8 per cent.  In addition, high input costs of raw materials and the crimping shortage of power supply seem to have further aggravated the problem. But what stands out starkly and clearly is that the government's apathy towards the infrastructure and manufacturing sectors is the reason for this gloomy scenario. Thankfully, the government seems to have now shaken off its stupor and woken to the reality that the service sector alone cannot be counted on to generate growth and employment.

FICCI President Naina Lal Kidwai said recently that "supply-side bottlenecks due to inadequate infrastructure, inadequacy of fuel supply linkages and delays in project clearances of large manufacturing and infrastructure projects should be the priority areas to be addressed through policy.” The government would do well to pay heed to such advice.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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Minority appeasement, again?

The SP government’s decision to withdraw terror charges triggers off a storm in the state, writes Puja Awasthi
The steely hope in Ayesha Qazmi’s voice pierces through a patchy telephone connection. “My burdens will go. It is now just a matter of days”, she exults from her home in the village of Sammopur, Azamgarh in Uttar Pradesh. A more restrained hope surges through the voice of Ghulam Qadir who speaks from Kushar village (Kisthwar, Jammu and Kashmir). “The worst is over. Life will begin to move again”, he says.

Ayesha and Qadir have not met but are linked to each other through the fates of two men. In the former’s case, that man is her husband Tariq Qazmi, a doctor of Unani medicine who is prime accused in the 2007 serial blasts of Gorakhpur which left six injured. For Qadir, it is his son Sajjad-ur-Rehman, who was arrested for being an accomplice in the blasts on a confessional statement by Tariq Qazmi and his alleged co-conspirator Khalid Mujahid, a teacher.

With the UP government’s recent announcement of a recommendation to drop charges against Tariq Qazmi, Sajjad-ur-Rehman’s release has become a logical expectation for he was supposedly implicated by the former. However, the logic of the grey war against terror has seldom been that simple. As Rajeev Yadav, spokesperson of the Rihai Manch, a forum campaigning for the release of innocent youths framed on terror charges, explains: “The announcement is just a ploy to distract the community. The government is playing with emotions. The court is free to dismiss the government’s recommendation even if district officials endorse it. Terrorism is a political issue”.

Even if the court were to accept the government’s appeal, Tariq Qazmi would continue to remain in jail as he is also accused in the court blasts of November 23, 2007 which left 14 dead. The case is currently being tried in Barabanki and given the might of the state’s lawyers it is doubtful that the government will risk a similar announcement in it. That more important sub text has been lost in the cacophony that has followed the government’s announcement.

The government has also announced the dropping of treason charges (brought because they shouted anti-India slogans in a Lucknow court) against five accused from West Bengal – Mohamed Ali Akbar, Mukhtar Hussain, Azizur Rehman, Nasimul Hafiz and Nurul Isman. Once again, the more important fact of them still remaining in jail under the Explosives Act was lost in the criticism that the government was playing with fire. The Samajwadi Party had promised to release all innocents falsely jailed on terror charges in its election manifesto. According to a list compiled by the Rihai Manch, 25 such accused from the state are jailed in the state, 20 have been jailed outside the state while 10 accused from other states are in UP’s prisons.

Last November, the government made its first announcement (not recommendation) in the Rampur CRPF camp attack case and was promptly challenged through a petition filed in the Allahabad High Court. Since the government never actually filed an application, the petition was dismissed. This time a member of the Samajwadi Party is threatening to approach the court in Faizabad even though the government’s stand will become clear only on May 3, the next date for the hearing in the case against Tariq Qazmi.

Yet, a storm of protests is rising. The state BJP unit’s spokesperson Vinay Bahadur Pathak says, “There will be dangerous consequences of this politics of appeasement. If the government has to decide everything, why have courts?” Manish Mahajan, the state president of the Akhil Bharat Hindu Mahasabha says, “By rewarding terrorists, the government is stooping low to ensure its hold on the minority vote”.

Within the state’s Anti Terrorist Squad (ATS) there are other worries. “All the hard work that went into building a case against the terrorists will be lost to political caprice. This will discourage the force and send out a wrong message”, says a high-ranking official.

Tariq Qazmi and Khalid Mujahid were arrested (according to the police version) from the Barabanki railway station with 1.250 kg RDX, six detonators, three cellphones and two SIM cards, a month after the Gorakhpur blast. On their confession, a few days later, Sajjad-ur-Rahman and Akhtar, both from Jammu and Kashmir, were also arrested.

In September of the following year, the Mumbai police made five arrests and declared that it had netted the group responsible for all blasts in the country since 2005, including Gorakhpur, thus punching holes in the claims of the state police.

In 2012, a report submitted to the state government by the one man Nimesh Commission (appointed by the previous Mayawati government in 2008) concluded that the police version of events on December 22, 2007 (the day of Tariq Qazmi and Khalid Mujahid’s arrest) was “suspicious” and suggested action against all those officials and personnel who played an “active role” in the arrests of the two, without actually naming anyone.

In a curious twist, the Samajwadi Party government has denied the existence of the report. As recently as March this year, the state’s home department, responding to a RTI query asking for a copy of the report said that it had never received it, hence the question of sharing it did not arise. Seven weeks later, the state’s home secretary cited the same report while announcing the proposal for Tariq Qazmi’s release.

The perils of this ambiguity are obvious to Zaheer Alam Falahi, uncle of Khalid Mujahid. “While it is good that the government is working on its promise, till it does not officially release the report, the perception that the recommendations were not backed by impartial investigations will grow. This will harm both the party and the community”, he says.

SR Darapuri, the state’s former Inspector General of Police, says that there are larger questions that must be answered. “The blasts were a fact, as were the arrests. The government must investigate who was responsible for both. Were the real culprits let off? Where did the explosives that the police claimed to have recovered from the accused come from?”

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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Back to square one

Will Musharraf's return change Pak's political scenario?

"Where are the people who said I will never return home. I have been receiving death threats and some people have been trying to scare me but I have returned home for the sake of my country and people," was Pervez Musharraf’s riposte to the skeptics who discounted his chance of return owning to the charges hanging against him. It is noteworthy that Musharraf's safe homecoming was tolerated by Asif Ali Zardari, the man who was put behind bars and later forced into exile by Musharraf himself as Pakistan’s president way back in 1999 and 2004 respectively. It is debatable whether it’s a gesture of magnanimity or a lame submission to General Kayani’s dictate, with whom Musharraf enjoys an arm’s length relationship. Despite being one of the weakest presidents of Pakistan, Zardari knows that Musharraf doesn’t present a realistic challenge for him in the upcoming general election to be held in May this year. Not because Musharraf doesn’t hold any charisma but he is endowed with too little time to establish a foothold in the heartland of Pakistan. Further, and most importantly, Zardari was helpless as a multi-participant’s deal was struck involving the army, the government of Saudi Arabia, Nawaz Sharif and Musharraf.

Musharraf’s impact on the impending polls and in Pakistan’s public life doesn’t seem too potent as the contest will be a tripartite dead-heat race among Zardari, Imran Khan and Sharif. However, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, the leadership of Indian immigrants in Pakistan, has immediately warmed up to Musharraf with open arms much to his delight in an otherwise hostile environment prevailing.

Musharraf had been a mixed bag for India – on the one hand he orchestrated the Kargil war as military general while on the other he had been instrumental in cooling Kashmir’s simmering pot as the country’s president.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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Movie Review: I, Me Aur Main

Oh boy, what a pain!

I am the best, the protagonist of I, Me Aur Main, intones every time he is assailed by self-doubt. He does this standing before a mirror, his fists clenched like a pugilist poised to deliver the knockout punch. You expect the guy to be a man of action. Turns out he’s not. The punch never materializes. And a KO is out of the question.

When neither the plot premise nor the treatment has anything to write home about, expecting John Abraham to come up with a deadly coup de grace on behalf of this middling romantic comedy is really the height of optimism.

As the title suggests, this is about a man who cannot see beyond his nose. But he is a lucky bloke – he gets away with being a pain in the neck.

Neither this guy nor his story is particularly interesting. The narrative is crammed with predictable devices, and the women in the protagonist’s life do not seem to possess a life of their own.

Which woman worth her salt would fight to cling on to a man who lives with her for three years, refuses to pay the milkman’s bill because he drinks black coffee, and dithers endlessly when it comes to the question of solemnizing the relationship?
About the only surprise the film springs is that it does not end in a gaudy shaadi shamiana swarming with smarmy guests belting out a raucous celebratory song. Instead, the climax unfolds in a maternity ward where a baby girl is born and all is forgiven.

Directed by debutant Kapil Sharma, I, Me Aur Main revolves around a music producer (John Abraham) out of tune with the times. His live-in partner (Chitrangda Singh) tries in vain to make him take her home to mom (Zarina Wahab). When all efforts fail, she dumps him. The hero finds another woman, a fashion stylist (Prachi Desai), who is the exact opposite – bubbly and full of beans. And life goes on…

The film never springs to life, twisting through a sub-plot about the hero’s boss (Raima Sen) who, in her own words, has been hired by the music company to put him in his place. The male protagonist decides to get his own back by launching a new singer who has been rejected by the boss. He gets too many shots at redemption – by the time he gets it right, the audience has ceased to care.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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More research same results

Everybody knows which is the rape capital of India; a survey nails it again

The brutal gang-rape of a girl in Delhi in December 2012 again justified Delhi's title ignominious title as ‘the rape capital of India.’ The growing number of crimes against women has proved the city’s inability to provide safety to this vulnerable section of society.

According to a recent TripAdvisor survey, "Delhi is voted to be the most unsafe city while Mumbai is ranked as the safest city." Bangalore and Ahmedabad are rated as second most safe cities of India. Around 94 per cent foreign female respondents expressed their fear of visiting India alone, but not when they travel to other international destinations. This fear can be gauged by browsing the records of National Crime Records Bureau. According to NCRB, 24,206 incidents of rape and molestation were recorded in India in 2012, which is a rise of 9 per cent over the last year. Delhi alone recorded over 4,000 rape cases in 2011. More than half of the reported cases had victims between the age group of 18 and 30. A 2009 government crime report said that about 24 percent of total rape cases and above 40 per cent of cases of kidnapping and abduction of women took place in Delhi. In another survey jointly conducted by a women's rights group Jagori and the UN, it waas revealed that two of every three women in Delhi have been sexually harassed at least twice and at the maximum five times in the last one year. Shockingly, 40 per cent of harassment and molestation incidents took place in broad daylight. What is worse, 45 per cent women surveyed felt no cooperation from the police if they approached. Unfortunately, 70 per cent of men interviewed said that they would not intervene and rather be mute spectators.

Delhi Police has earned the reputation of being untrustworthy by local civilians. They have failed to set the environment of 'zero tolerance’ against rape. The conviction rates too are in a complete mess with below average forensic capabilities and very hollow anti-rape laws, despite the recent changes.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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Book Review : On Warne

Of googlies and flippers

His wasn’t a mere cricket career. It was a full-fledged saga, a non-stop media event, as exasperating as it was exhilarating. Shane Keith Warne has been the subject of many books already – at least 15 at last count. His spectacular achievements as a leg-spinner and spate of misdemeanours as a trouble-prone celebrity are well documented. Yet the two dramatic decades that he spent peddling his incredible wares on the world stage were far too heavily laden with both triumphs and controversies to be fully deconstructed in a single tome.

Veteran journalist Gideon Haigh gives it another shot and makes a fair fist of it. Looking at the life and times of the greatest spinner, if not bowler, of all times through a set of different prisms, On Warne comes up with a well-rounded portrait of a natural born champ who made the headlines around the cricketing world with his exploits both on the field and off it.

Based on interviews with Warne and his mentors and teammates conducted over the years and his own recollections of the bowler in action, Haigh provides perhaps the most illuminating account yet of a man bedevilled by contradictions and still completely taken up by the magic of his craft.

The web that Warne spun around batsmen sprang from simple methods. But the results they achieved were anything but. As he has claimed, cricket found him, and not the other way around. “He was taken in by the game,” Haigh writes, “as he floated through it because of a unique set of circumstances; and that embrace was an outcome not of success but of compound failure, in sport in general, and cricket in particular.”
     
From the making of the legend to the many follies of a life lived under constant scrutiny, replete with brushes with women, diet pills, career-threatening injuries, run-ins with Australian cricket bosses and even a bookmaker, the book tracks the entire Shane Warne story without pulling any punches. The result is a dossier that is as riveting as the master leggie’s magnificent accomplishments.

Warne’s career witnessed many highs and lows, but the unalloyed joy that he brought to the complex art of leg spin bowling remains unparalleled. He was a feared opponent, and not merely for the bag of tricks that he had up his sleeves, but also for the sheer swagger, born from a sense of superiority, that he brought to the contest.

“The essence of spin bowling is to tease and to goad, to incite batsmen to misjudge, overstep, overreach. Warne took it just a little further,” the author writes in the section ‘The Art of Warne’. “He presented the opponent with a narrative. I am better than you, he said; everybody knows this, but circumstances decree we go through the motions of proving the obvious.”

But there was nothing that was obvious in what Sri Lankan batsman Aravinda de Silva called Warne’s “honeytrap”. Haigh refers to Peter Roebuck once likening “young Australians playing English spin in the 1980s to schoolchildren accustomed to calculations suddenly being bombarded with mental arithmetic”. The author stretches that: “English batsmen trying to puzzle Warne out in the 1990s looked like children tackling calculus using their fingers.”

Haigh identifies four distinct stages in Warne’s evolution as a leg-spinner. In the time of Warne 1.0, the bowler “did not so much seem to get batsmen out as defeat them entirely”. He thrived on the novelty factor. This, Haigh writes, “was the ‘leg spin’ about which our elders told us these many years, and damn if it wasn’t just as perplexing as they’d always said”.

While there can be no end to fascinating analysis of the sheer impact of Warne’s bowling on befuddled batsmen, perhaps the most readable part of this book pertains to his relationship with four other ‘pivotal personalities of his era’ McGrath, MacGill,  Waugh and Buchanan”.

Haigh devotes several pages to Warne’s fruitful partnership with McGrath. “For a decade, they were something like an incantation. Other countries had great elisions: Ambrozanwalsh, Donaldanpollock, Wasimanwaqar. But Warnanmagrah were the great conversation stopper. You looked up and down Australia and its opponent on any given day, and there often seemed not much to choose between them on paper. Then you came to Warnanmagrah. They played for Australia, and they were matchless.”

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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'More cities should play in the league'

How much is HIL going to benefit Indian hockey in the long run?
It is one of the best things to have happened for Indian hockey. Never before have so many Indian players got the opportunity to play in so many matches for so long. So it is not only benefiting Indian hockey, it is also helping the players. I have seen all the matches. Almost all the matches were of high intensity and high voltage. So I feel it will boost the morale of the players, especially the youngsters.

Can you name youngsters who are doing well in HIL?
Though he is already playing for India, I am really impressed with the performance of Akash Deep. Among the older players, Gurbaj Singh and SV Sunil are playing well. I think there is a good mixture of young and older players in this league.

How do you assess the response of the fans?
The fans are coming to watch the matches. They are appreciating the close contests as well. I think this is just a beginning. In the future there will be huge change in the standard of this league. And that will provide a boost to the potential of the players as well.

Will the improvement impact India's showing in international tournaments?
As I have already said, we can see the change happening because Indian players have never played for such a long stretch with and against top foreign players like Jamie Dawyer, Moritz Fuertse, etc.
Can you tell us what the speciality of Delhi team is. They have done really well in the league?
For me the USP of the Delhi Waveriders is they gel together very well. Almost all the players, whether they are from India or abroad, are equally good. They are all virtually of the same standard. There shouldn't be a huge gap in the experience of two players. For example, in the Punjab team, a few of the players are not as experienced as Jamie Dawyer is, so how can you expect them to keep pace and perform well?

Would you like to see any changes being introduced in future editions of HIL?
I would like to see more teams based in different cities playing in the league. This would allow more hockey fans to see the matches in their own cities and that will generate more opportunity for the players as well.

Would you like to see WSH players being roped in for HIL?
Yes, there were so many good players in World Series Hockey. There were so many big names who played in WSH. They should be given an opportunity to play in this league as well. Every player nurtures the desire to perform well in his chosen sport and if there are quality players who turned out in WSH, why should they be barred from playing in HIL?

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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Movie review: Midnight's Children

A tryst with destiny 

Pruning a 600 page book into a 130 page script is a challenging task in itself. Salman Rushdie took upon himself the task of betrothing his darling to the big screen and the results are all “acts of love.”

Deepa Mehta guides the film delicately through a path which initially moves majestically and later descends into a whirlwind of colours, crackers, characters and composites, showing India and her chosen children in a light which retains Rushdie’s elegant prose.

Beginning on the idyllic Dal lake in Kashmir, Saleem Sinai narrates how India and the lives of those like him, who were born on the stroke of midnight, on the eve of India’s independence were entangled and challenged. At the end of the film Saleem’s voice (narrated by Salman Rushdie himself) concedes that even though the promise was grander than the reality, they both survived and whatever they did were all acts of love.

What really draws your attention though is the sheer breadth of everything happening on the screen. Hopping from pre-independent India to post-independence Pakistan to the newly formed Bangladesh and back to India, twisting and turning through marriages, labour pains, childbirths, disownments, adoptions, magic, gritty reality, snakes, baskets, spices, sarees, colonial buildings, slums, politics, power and love; all tied by Rushdie’s steady narration, you will come out of the theatre feeling refreshed and bittersweet.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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2012 : DNA National B-School Survey 2012
Ranked 1st in International Exposure (ahead of all the IIMs)
Ranked 6th Overall
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Cannibalism in N Korea

Addressing starvation should be priority, not nuclear mission

In recent times, North Korea has been the most discussed topic among the newsmakers, more because of their new premier and its nuclear ambitions than improved economic status of its citizens. What has got swept under the carpet in the hype of nuclear testing and America's vindictive reprisal has been the shamefully pathetic state of Korea's social safety net. If the emergence of new leadership of Kim Jong-Un in 2012 and his prospect of economic liberalisation brought hope to the country, it has not translated into any visible inclusive growth measures. Shockingly, while Kim is seemingly busy with his lavish lifestyle and brinkmanship over nuclear tests, citizens are in the grasp of killing starvation because of severe food shortages.

Despite facing famines in past, the country has still not paid heed to social inclusion and social safety programs. The country had gone through an infamous famine (titled Arduous March) during 1994 to 1998 that reportedly took close to 3.5 million lives, but no potent policies were ever drafted to prevent its reoccurrence. The nation continued to ignore warnings from several global organisations. As per the FAO and the World Food Program, the country does not produce enough food to feed its 24 million people. A 2011 Crop Assessment Report highlighted that “3 million people would need outside food help in 2012.” Consequently, the World Food Program made a global appeal for $218 million in emergency food in 2011 but somehow it received only $85 million. Perhaps nothing could be as worrying as the latest reports of cannibalism. The Telegraph reported in May 2011 that defectors had given accounts of "executions of people who had either eaten or sold human flesh." Undercover reporters of Asia Press revealed in a report this week how in Chongdan county, a man "boiled his own child, ate his flesh and was arrested.” Another dug up his grandchild's corpse and ate it. News reports also confirm this week that another man was summarily executed after killing and eating his two children.

Surprisingly, the country has completely ignored (intentionally?) the issues of cannibalism and starvation and has termed these reports to be fabricated. North Korea has been overly vocal about US sanctions over its nuclear missile tests and Kim has vowed to take “substantial and high profile important state measures” to strike back against those sanctions. But not even an iota of that enthusiasm has been displayed for removing poverty and hunger!

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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Same old land issue. same old dilemma.

Even after much delay over a controversial bill on land acquisitions, the same questions over the extent of required consent and the scope for resettlement and rehabilitation continue to obstruct the creation of a sound law

The latest intervention of Congress President Sonia Gandhi in the long-pending legislation on land acquisitions has made things uncomfortable for Jairam Ramesh, the Union Minister of Rural Development. A land acquisition bill (rechristened as The Right to Fair Compensation, Resettlement, Rehabilitation and Transparency in Land Acquisition Bill), was recently approved by the Union Cabinet after several rounds of discussions by a Group of Ministers (GoM). The bill has been touted as UPA’s key answer to address investor sentiment and simultaneously address the ongoing conflicts over land across the nation. However, Sonia Gandhi’s reservations and the concerns raised by activists over certain provisions in the bill could cause more delay in the new law being passed.

Earlier this month, Ramesh had managed to avert what could have resulted in a major problem for the government. On October 2, thousands of landless farmers began a foot march from Gwalior to New Delhi demanding land for the landless and shelter for the homeless. The march under the aegis of Ekta Parishad, an NGO, that undertook a first of its kind movement in recent times, was set to culminate in New Delhi by the end of October. However, ten days into the march, Ramesh managed to disperse the movement after he signed a 10-point agreement with the leader of the movement P. V. Rajagopal.

Addressing a gathering of around 20,000 people at Agra’s COD grounds, Ramesh said that a task force in consultation with the state governments and the civil society will try to draft a policy that would ensure agricultural land and homestead rights for the landless and the homeless respectively. “The Centre cannot run away from the political responsibility of bringing about land reforms, but you should continue to put pressure on the state governments,” he said, claiming the Constitution of India has given the responsibility of deciding on land-related matters to state governments.

With the Cabinet having given its nod to the bill, the government is set to introduce it in the Parliament in the coming session.

On October 16, 2012, the GoM headed by Sharad Pawar finalised the draft, that laid down the condition that even if 2/3rd landowners gave their consent to sell their land, the government could acquire it for private projects and public-private-partnership (PPP) initiatives. Interestingly, two days after the draft details were made public, the Congress President made headlines for recommending to the PMO that the number should be necessarily raised to 80%. Only in case of acquisition for PPP projects could the threshold be diluted to 67%, if the ownership of the land remained with the government. The earlier draft of the bill did have this provision, but was later tweaked after certain ministries expressed dissent over it. Sources from the government tell B&E that the land bill is now expected to undergo some changes on the percentage of landowners’ consent, at the insistence of the UPA Chairperson.

The Land Acquisition and Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill (LARR Bill), 2011 was tabled in the Parliament in September last year. It was referred to a Parliamentary Standing Committee which submitted its recommendations eight months later (May 2012). But due to differences within the government, PM Manmohan Singh constituted a GoM a month ago to decide on the final draft.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

 

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Why The Numbers Are Stacked Against The Congress in 2014

It’s an old cliché no doubt, but elections often are about numbers, mathematics and cold calculations. Yes, charisma, ideology, policies and campaigning strategy do matter. But at the end of the day, it really boils down to numbers. That is the reason why the Republican challenger Mitt Romney looks all set to lose badly to Barack Obama on November 6 when Americans vote for a new President. He is losing despite the terrible economic situation in the United States since Obama took over in January 2009. Obama should have lost, but it is numbers that are working for him. Republican ideology, particularly the hard line attitude of the faithful, has alienated huge chunks of voters. Women, students, blacks and Hispanics are overwhelmingly against Republicans and will vote for Obama. The number of these groups of voters will surely outnumber the angry white voters who will vote for Romney.

Of course India is vastly different from US. And of course, elections are still – at least officially – far away in 2014. But even at this early a stage, it is easy to see why the numbers appear stacked against the Congress in 2014. And that is the reason why Sonia Gandhi and her advisors and strategists are a worried lot. I am not talking just about the impact of the serial scams like Commonwealth Games, 2G, airport privatisation, Coalgate and the latest irrigation scam in Maharashtra. I am not talking just about the venomous bite of inflation that is destroying household budgets. I am not talking just about the manner in which Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh has become the butt of jokes and cruel humour despite the recent and futile efforts of some sections of the media to portray him as a decisive leader. I am not talking just about the damage that reluctant allies like Mulayam Yadav, Mayawati, Sharad Pawar and Karunanidhi will inflict during the run up to 2014 even as they prop up the tottering UPA regime. All these things will have an impact on Congress’ fortunes in 2014. No doubt about that. But it is the curse of cold, hard numbers that could have a more dangerous impact.

Before we get into the analysis of the cold, hard numbers, let us first take a cold, hard look at the factors that led to the triumph of the Congress and the UPA in 2009. Everybody talks about how the jholawallah advisors of Sonia Gandhi who comprise the National Advisory Council crafted the Congress victory of 2009 by coming up with schemes like NREGA. Then there was the Rs.600 billion farm loan waiver announced in 2009. If you believe these played a decisive role in 2009, you are misinformed and wrong. Overwhelmingly rural states – where you would expect to find grateful beneficiaries of NREGA and farm loan amnesties – like Odisha, Chattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh did not give a lot of seats to the Congress. Including Uttar Pradesh, the Congress managed just 46 out of 195 seats from these states in 2009. In fact, the Congress and the UPA did amazingly well in urban constituencies in 2009. It won 13 out of the 13 Lok Sabha seats on offer in Delhi and Mumbai. That performance was last seen perhaps in 1984 when Rajiv Gandhi swept India in the aftermath of the assassination of Indira Gandhi. So fact number one is that Congress did fabulously in urban centers.

Fact number two is the massive vote against the Left in West Bengal and Kerala that gave Congress and the UPA 39 out of 62 seats in 2009 in these two states. Fact number three is the strong alliances that gave a lot of seats to the UPA in 2009. In West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Maharashtra, the Congress and the UPA managed to win a massive 98 out of 159 seats in 2009. And who can forget fact number four – YSR Reddy who, along with the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM), gave the Congress a spectacular 34 out of 42 seats in Andhra. In 2009, YSR was clearly the incumbent hero who simply swept aside all opposition despite loud whispers of numerous scams and instances of crony capitalism. The last factor is the suicidal behaviour of the BJP that gave the Congress 20 out of 25 seats in Rajasthan in 2009.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

 

For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles

IIPM Global Exposure
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IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face

BBA Institute

“Increased costs will be passed on to consumers”

Rajan Mathews, Director General, COAI, laments that the recent slew of policy decisions is extremely debilitating for an already struggling industry.

B&E: It is being put forward that the incumbents already have enough spectrum and may not bid at all. Won’t this encourage monopoly in the hands of a single operator?
Rajan Matthews (RM): It is not true. In fact, the scarcity of spectrum is affecting roll-out obligations and the Quality of Service of the operators. Being the 2nd largest telecom market in the world, it is actually ironic that average spectrum availability with Indian operators is significantly lower than in other leading markets in the world. Most operators who have been in the market for some time now have a fairly large subscriber base, which needs to be catered to with appropriate Quality of Service and outreach. Lack of spectrum leads to dearth in capacity for serving subscribers and further roll-outs into rural, semi-urban and urban areas; and leads to a substantial rise on the OPEX. In fact, if the operators did not require more spectrum, there would not have been so many representations made by them to the government regarding the high reserve price being set for the auction. The only reason for operators to shy away from the auction would be the exorbitantly high reserve prices that threaten sustainability.

B&E: What are your thoughts on refarming of spectrum against the high prices that have been set?
RM: The entire restructuring of an efficient network, by ripping off the existing infrastructure, disconnecting the connected and then deploying an infrastructure, which is more demanding both in terms of capital as well as space and construction, does not bring any sense of benefit to our minds, whether to the industry, or the consumers.

As per an independent study conducted by Analysis Mason, operators with 900 MHz band will need to replace 286,590 base stations and install an additional 171,954 base stations to provide equivalent coverage on 1800 MHz; which will lead to an incremental capex of Rs.54,739 crores, and incremental annual opex of Rs.11,762 crores. Also, operators will have to write-off existing 900MHz assets at an estimated cost of Rs.22,310 crores. At an industry level, additional capex of about INR 26,653 crores will be needed to deploy new towers to support incremental base stations.

In the scenario that operators with 900MHz spectrum are unable to provide equivalent coverage due to business case and operational feasibility, there is a risk of reduction in geographic coverage by as much as 40%. This is estimated to directly affect connectivity to about 70 million subscribers, and consumers trying to reach them. Also, the business case for a new operator acquiring 900MHz spectrum at the proposed prices will not allow for expansion to rural markets. If incremental investment in refarming and the costs of spectrum are passed on to consumers in the form of higher retail voice tariffs, overall tariffs will go up by as much as 64 paise/minute, with much higher impact in non-metro circles.

B&E: What’s the expected impact on the already high D/E ratio?
RM: It is extremely unfortunate that a slew of policy decisions such as auction of spectrum, one-time fee, refarming etc. are being imposed on the industry when it was already grappling with business viability and sustainability. Such decisions have further increased the financial burden on operators, leaving no scope to absorb the increased costs. It has been brought to the notice of the Government and the ministry that India has one of the lowest EBITDA margins of 29% among emerging Asian economies (36% on an average). Several operators report negative PATs and will not be able to cash break-even in next 5-7 years. Similarly, most operators report a negative or low return on capital employed. Hence, these increased costs will eventually be borne by consumers in the form of higher tariffs for the services.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

 

For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles

 

IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri – A Man For The Society….
IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman

ExecutiveMBA

 

Another Spanish era. Another bull fighter?

Spain’s new government, due to be Officially Sworn in Mid-December, will have to add new austerity measures beyond those established by the previous cabinet if it wants to regain sustainability of public finance.

Who would have thought just a few years back that countries in the mighty eurozone would fall like a pack of cards. But that is what is happening. First Ireland, then Greece and recently Portugal, all have been victims of the devastating sovereign debt crisis. The reason is simple. Markets have lost faith in policymakers’ ability to do what it takes to carry out serious structural reform, bring down debt, and stimulate growth in their respective countries. And it is evident. After claiming two of Europe’s most popular leaders – George Papandreou, the third member of the Papandreou family to serve as the country’s prime minister, and Silvio Berlusconi, the famous Bunga Bunga organiser who played the first fiddle in Italian politics for nearly two decades – it’s the Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero who is the latest victim of sovereign debt crisis (Zapatero led Socialist Party lost to conservative Popular Party in an election dominated by agendas revolving around sovereign debt crisis on November 20, 2011).

After all, Spain is the 1,000-pound gorilla in the room right now. The monetary union can absorb the shock if Greece and Portugal collapse. But Spain is too large; if it defaults on its debt, the monetary union would likely collapse and all of Europe would descend into a deep recession. However, elections that brought Mariano Rajoy led Popular Party to power in Spain have not been able to restore markets’ faith in the country’s fiscal situation. On the contrary, at an auction of Spanish government debt worth €2.978 billion held after the election, yields reached euro-era highs. Bidders set an average rate of 5.1% for three-month debt, more than double the rate set at the previous month’s auction, while the six-month yield reached 5.2%, up from 3.3%.

No doubt, Spain, the last of the four PIGS (an acronym used by international bond analysts that refers to the faltering economies of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain; the other three have already faltered), has avoided the need for external aid due to a slew of spending cuts and reforms by the socialist government so far, but then how long? Spain’s recovery has been really rough so far. In fact, the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy is among the area’s laggards. While the entire monetary union saw GDP grow by 1.4% last quarter (Q3 2011), Spain’s economy crawled at 0.8% in Q3 2011. At 21.52% (a 15-year high in Q3 2011), Spain’s unemployment rate too is the highest in the area, and almost double of Portugal’s 12.4%, the last victim of the debt crisis.
 

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

 

For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles

 

2012 : DNA National B-School Survey 2012
Ranked 1st in International Exposure (ahead of all the IIMs)
Ranked 6th Overall
Zee Business Best B-School Survey 2012
Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri’s Session at IMA Indore
IIPM IN FINANCIAL TIMES, UK. FEATURE OF THE WEEK
IIPM strong hold on Placement : 10000 Students Placed in last 5 year
IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri – A Man For The Society….
IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman
IIPM B-School Facebook Page
IIPM Global Exposure
IIPM Best B School India
IIPM B-School Detail
IIPM Links
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face

Required: Unequal Access to Education for Women

The Struggle of Women to break The Shackles of Patriarchy and Create an Individual Identity has been well Documented. But we Still have a Long Way to go in Creating a Level playing Field for our Women.

Addressing the International Women’s Day forum on March 8 this year, Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary-General said, “An investment in the education of women and girls is an investment in our own security, prosperity and future of the planet. We know that when women and girls receive more education, they are able to contribute greatly to their families, villages and nations as successful workers, healthy mothers, and full participants in the political life of their countries.”

From breaking the cycle of poverty to enhanced employment opportunities and better health, the benefits of educating girls and women are well-documented. For example, according to a report recently released by United Nations Development Programme, the GDP of countries such as India, Indonesia and Malaysia could be raised significantly if women in those countries were employed at the level of many developed countries. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development report, Women’s Education in Developing Countries, documents, “The evidence is overwhelming that education improves health and productivity and that the poorest people gain the most. When schools open their doors wider to girls and women, as well as to boys and men, the benefits multiply. Indeed, failing to invest adequately in educating women can reduce the potential benefits of educating men. This failure exacts a high cost – in lost opportunities to raise productivity, to increase income, and to improve the quality of life.”

The most pivotal long-term solution to breaking the vicious cycle of social and economic exploitation of women is to empower them through education. On paper, women in India enjoy equal status to that of men. Striking a positive note towards women empowerment, the government of India had declared the year 2001 as “Women’s Empowerment Year” in order to promote the vision “where women are equal partners to men”. From the concept of ‘welfare’ in the seventies to ‘development’ in the eighties and then to ‘empowerment’ in the nineties, our laws, development policies, plans and programmes have aimed at women’s advancement in different spheres. In recent years, the empowerment of women has been recognised as the central issue in determining the status of women. The National Commission for Women was set up by an Act of Parliament in 1990 to safeguard the rights and legal entitlements of women. The 73rd and 74th Amendments (1993) to the Constitution of India have provided for reservation of seats in the local bodies of Panchayats and Municipalities for women, laying a strong foundation for their participation in decision making at the local levels.

But the reality still smacks of a wide gender disparity in the very basic literacy level. According to Census 2011, the effective literacy rate (age 7 and above) are 82.14% for men and 65.46%. And with states like Rajasthan, Bihar and Jharkhand, where women literacy is at 52%, 53% and 56% respectively, contributing to the cause, we have bridged the male-female gap in literacy rate from 24.84% in 1991 to only 16.68% in 2011.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri

and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

 

For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles

 

2012 : DNA National B-School Survey 2012
Ranked 1st in International Exposure (ahead of all the IIMs)
Ranked 6th Overall
Zee Business Best B-School Survey 2012
Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri’s Session at IMA Indore
IIPM IN FINANCIAL TIMES, UK. FEATURE OF THE WEEK
IIPM strong hold on Placement : 10000 Students Placed in last 5 year
IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri – A Man For The Society….
IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman
IIPM B-School Facebook Page
IIPM Global Exposure
IIPM Best B School India
IIPM B-School Detail
IIPM Links
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face
IIPM – FLP (Flexi Learning Program)

Sony’s (Intelligent?) bet on The Idiot Box

Sony India has been Focussing Big Time on its Television Business in India. And it seems to have paid it off well. But then, it will Certainly have to come with Some Innovative Strategies soon if it wants to continue rising up The Ranks.

“It’s a time of transition, which makes things even more difficult”. These words from Osamu Katayama’s book These are our future (which details Sony Corporation’s recent history) aptly describe the phase that this Japanese multinational is going through at the moment. First, a devastating earthquake in Japan. Then, a cyber-attack on its network. And finally, a colossal net loss of $3.1 billion for the financial year ending March 31, 2011 (Sony’s second worst financial performance ever). All this has not only made its share price tumble over 25% since the turn of the year, but has also put an enormous pressure on its chief executive Howard Stringer who is striving hard to win the battle against the odds, one after the other.

In fact, when Howard Stringer, Chairman, CEO & President, Sony Corporation, took over the reins of this Japanese conglomerate in June 2005, its three major businesses – gaming, mobile phones and television – were already losing momentum, globally. Thus, the task ahead for Stringer was not only to save these businesses from collapsing, but also identify functions and markets that could serve as alternative sources of revenue for Sony, at least till the time these businesses were back on track, live and kicking.

Although Sony had been in India since 1994, it was only then that the Indian consumers saw Sony recognising the real potential of this ‘Asian Tiger’. Thus, everything from more launches, slightly more affordable prices, to more stores, to even zero-interest finance schemes, to things which Sony had never done before, were all suddenly happening, and not just in India, but across the globe. Result: Sony’s CPD division, which sells televisions, digital imaging, audio and video products, semiconductors, components and business services, recorded a respectable profit of $35.4 million in FY2010-11, up 1.6% y-o-y, at a time when the core divisions were bleeding losses.

No doubt, the strategy paid it off well across countries, but then India seems to be special, so much so that the company is now looking at the country as a priority market and expects it to become the fourth largest market for its products in the world, contributing as much as 10% to the group’s sales in the next couple of years. In fact, Sony, which started off slow in the Indian market, is now rising up fast in a market dominated by chaebols like LG and Samsung.

Cut to the chase, the focus for the time being is on its television business, particularly the Flat Panel Display (FPD) TV market in India. In fact, as per the US-based market research firm DisplaySearch, Sony has already overtaken Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics for the top position, with 22.1% of flat panel TVs shipped in the Indian market in 2010. Even according to the GFK Nielsen Urban India Panel TV (LCD + Plasma TV) Report (for April-June 2010 period), Sony Bravia (Sony’s flagship FPD product) had become the market leader in Flat Panel Display segment in the first quarter of FY2010. It had grabbed a market share of 32% by value, and 29.5% by units sold. The company had sold more than 1,00,000 units during this quarter, more than the number of units sold by any other brand in the market. For the month of June alone, Sony had captured a significant market share, 33% by value and 29.5% by units. The company reported maximum sales in the states of Maharashtra, Delhi, Tamil Nadu & West Bengal during this quarter. For starters, under the FPD TV market, the 22-inch, 32-inch & 40-42 inch segment comprises of more than 75% of LCD units sold in the country. And interestingly, Bravia was the leader in all the three categories.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist). For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles

2012 : DNA National B-School Survey 2012
Ranked 1st in International Exposure (ahead of all the IIMs)
Ranked 6th Overall
Zee Business Best B-School Survey 2012
Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri’s Session at IMA Indore
IIPM IN FINANCIAL TIMES, UK. FEATURE OF THE WEEK
IIPM strong hold on Placement : 10000 Students Placed in last 5 year
IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri – A Man For The Society….
IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman
IIPM B-School Facebook Page
IIPM Global Exposure
IIPM Best B School India
IIPM B-School Detail
IIPM Links
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face
IIPM – FLP (Flexi Learning Program)

B&E Presents India’s Fastest Growing Companies 2010

For many years people carped that Dhirubhai Ambani was less of an entrepreneur and more of a manager who ‘managed’ the environment to make RIL a success story. But the fact is that RIL grew and grew faster to virtually leave behind all venerable old business houses in the country in a jiffy and at the same time won the hearts of many, who invested their hard earned pennies in the company. And that is the truth.

Call it ‘irrational exuberance’ or simply greed, every investor at the market place, at all times, stays on a hunt to pin himself up to a new bee that promises to deliver some real quick honey. And that’s where the league of the fast and the furious prove there hegemony. They may not be necessarily big, but with their uncanny ability to fly as the phoenix, they become the darlings of the investors. So, if Benjamin Franklin believed, “Without continual growth and progress, such words as improvement, achievement, and success have no meaning”, for an ordinary market man, continual growth without the ability to outperform others does not deserve an action called ‘investment’. And this finally made us look for the bunch that drove investors crazy this year on basis of their fast track growth.

After considerable brainstorming and some number crunching (alright, we admit it: after a lot of number crunching and soul searching!), the editorial team at Business & Economy decided to seal this issue with a KISS! Before you get us wrong, our kiss harks back to that old cliché that says, Keep It Simple, Stupid! In this age of information overload and overdose, people often tend to forget that simplicity and brevity can never be matched by jargon and mumbo jumbo when it comes to explaining things. And the final pristine fact is that truly, there can be no other factor more important than the topline growth of a firm... across industries, across geographies. But then, growth can be deceiving as well owing to the base effect. So, while keeping our research confined to BSE 500 companies, and considering the growth in revenue between FY2009 and FY2010, B&E presents India’s 100 Fastest Growing Companies both in terms of relative growth (year-on-year) and absolute growth (additional revenue generated).

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles

2012 : DNA National B-School Survey 2012
Ranked 1st in International Exposure (ahead of all the IIMs)
Ranked 6th Overall
Zee Business Best B-School Survey 2012
Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri’s Session at IMA Indore
IIPM IN FINANCIAL TIMES, UK. FEATURE OF THE WEEK
IIPM strong hold on Placement : 10000 Students Placed in last 5 year
IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri – A Man For The Society….
IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman
IIPM B-School Facebook Page
IIPM Global Exposure
IIPM Best B School India
IIPM B-School Detail
IIPM Links
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face
IIPM – FLP (Flexi Learning Program)