Turks themselves were seldom excited about their country’s liaison with Israel. The military was, unfortunately for Turks, the final word on the nation’s foreign policy in the last few decades. Now, in a progressively more democratic Turkey, there are more than one power centre and the dynamics of the game has changed. It is also merely an illusion that the army will remain consistently pro-American. Older, higher-ranking officers do have a soft corner for the West. However, the new recruits and second-rung officers who grew up perceiving the US as their foe are rising through the ranks. Therefore, to say that behind Turkey’s new Israel policy is just Erdogan’s vanity and populist tendencies will be a lack of imagination on the part of Western analyst. “Military too has become gradually more disgruntled with its Israeli counterpart. A key reason for the mistrust is the 2007 Israeli air attacks on alleged Syrian nuclear plants—strikes flown over Turkish terrain. They never bothered to inform us,” says ex-Turkish general and foreign affairs expert, Haldun Solmazturk, while talking to TSI. Also, understanding Erdogan’s political posturing starts with understanding that in Turkey rage at the West is near collective. Where Islamists see a worldwide crusade against Islam, secular leftists see global capitalism and US neo-imperialism.
There are also prevailing financial and tactical interests motivating Turkey’s foreign policy. In the last decade, it has strengthened its inter-regional business to great effect, seeking markets not in the West Asia, but also in old adversaries, including Armenia.
Considerably easing visa regulations with Syria last year, to give an example, has already been an advantage to traders in southern Turkey. Russia has pipped US to be its single largest trading partner, and its trade with Sudan has multiplied several folds since the dawn of the millennium. Iran, in the interim, is a chief source of inexpensive natural gas that fuels the appetite of Turkey’s
economy. On the other hand, Ahmet Davutoglu is being pegged as Turkey’s own Hennery Kissinger, albeit with a lot more morality. He is the godfather of an innovative, more multi-dimensional foreign policy; one he expects will make Turks more dominant on the world stage. The ‘zero problems policy’ has redefined its relations with its neighbours.
Talking to TSI, Ihsan Dagi, noted Turkish expert said, “The policy indicates a radical departure in the Turkish reading of the outside world. It rejects the predictable outlook that it is enclosed by enemies against which it should be equipped to shield itself. This was a worldview based on diffidence, antipathy and short-sighted pragmatism.” Clearly, Turkey has come out of its siege mentality. It is not to be pushed around. Even Israel, which has for long flouted the medians of diplomacy, is now becoming conscious of its confines, thanks to Turkish President Abdullah Gül. Following Israel’s insult of the Turkish ambassador, he said, “Unless there is a formal apology from Israel, we’re going to put Celikkol on the first plane back to Ankara.” Israel, of course, acted contrite, and humbly so. However, it should also be made clear that Turkey runs the eternal risk of finding itself discarded by both sides—Muslim and west Asian for the West, and too secular and pro-American for the west Asians. The next five years would be worth watching.
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