Thursday, June 27, 2013

Throw open the doors

The UN needs to make its job selection process transparent

Alluding to the United Nations’opaque selection process for candidates to its key bodies, Sir Richard Dolly, ex Director of UNICEF, makes a candid admission: “There is a need for some process of open hearing and interview of the best qualified potential candidates.”  The issue of selection cropped up when the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development announced the recruitment for the coveted post of secretary general. As per the UN’s cyclical selection process, the next man for the secretary general position to the UNCTAD must be from Africa. But, as is often the case, there is already a long queue in the run-up to the announcement of selection in September this year. Even curiouser, the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, who has the power to select, has refused to divulge the details of the shortlisted candidates.

The UN has a particularly blemished record when it comes to the selection of candidates for its various arms and agencies. The IMF and the World Bank too have a similar dismal record of recruitment, which they try to defend under the garb of “gentlemen’s agreement.” According to the agreement, the head of the IMF and the World Bank must either be an American or a European. That's a brazen display of economic and racial apartheid. Despite wide-ranging agreement among its members to drop the discriminatory policy, these bodies have not budged and obnoxious policy has endured to this day. What's even more exacerbating is that the rules of selection at these two apex bodies remain a closed-door exercise, with no information shared beyond their cloistered foyers.

 It seems that in the matter of selection of candidates for UNCTAD, Ban Ki-Moon is drawing his strategy from history, even though there is a need for adopting a new tack. According to Sir Dolly, eminent experts in the field like the Nobel laureate Joseph Eugene Stiglitz, an American economist and professor at Columbia University, and Jose Antonio Ocampo, former Under-Secretary-General of UN, ought to be in Moon’s selection panel. Though Moon ought to pay heed to what these respectable voices have been urging him to do, he has the luxury of acting unilaterally. Never in the history of the United Nations, a secretary general’s choice of selection has been rejected on the floor of the house.

Should the UN persist with its one-man show when it comes to the selection of key personnel. At a time when there is a cry for greater transparency and democratisation in decision making, the UN has a duty to lead by example. It is therefore all the more desirable that it should jettison its hidebound process of selection and recruitment and embrace a more democratic style that befits its reputation and credentials.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
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Thursday, June 06, 2013

Lessons not learnt

A 2010 high-level army assessment had predicted Chinese designs on Daulet Beg Oldi but India’s civilian rulers could not care less. Mayank Singh has the details.

The country may have woken up to the surprising and unexpected news of China entering and tenting in Depsang area, 30 kilometers south of Daulet Beg Oldi, in the Ladakh district of Jammu and Kashmir. But not the Indian Army.

According to a high-level Indian Army report submitted in 2010, this latest transgression by the Chinese army was pretty much on the cards. The report which was prepared under the command of a Lieutenant General was, “intended to be a guidance document for commanders and staff in evolving, reviewing and refining of operational plans with full knowledge and appreciation of the overall strategic context under which Sino-Indian military confrontation may occur and with deep insight into PLA’s military doctrinal content, its military capability, availability and types of forces for application in each sector and forms in which the threat may manifest.”

The high-level report had noted - quite correctly as it turned out on April 15 - that the Chinese strategy is not to grab territory but to send a message and to make political gains. It had predicted that China will avoid the Chusul sector but will try grabbing territory on the Daulet Beg Oldi side

The report speaks of the rise of both India and China but warns against lowering our guards. “While seeking and expecting a benign Sino-Indian cooperative and collaborative Asian geopolitical order, it would be imprudent to ignore China’s politico-military capabilities, its Asian and global ambitions and its track record, mindset and strategic culture. There is no alternative other than to intimately monitor PLA’s military capabilities and striving to institute appropriate deterrent military responses, operational concepts, operational  plans and force postures.’’

The report says that China has a proven record of single-minded pursuit of long term goals and objectives which will lead to an environment of conflict of interests with India. Like in the late 1950s and early 1960s before it culminated in a full-fledged border war, the tactics as far as the Chinese is concerned are tried and tested. Whether by accident or design, Chinese troops are more than ever before, crossing into Indian territory. The Chinese deny the charges and whenever solid evidence is presented, they attribute it to “The inexperience of the post commanders.’’

The military establishment is letting it be known that the latest tactical transgression is aimed at showing to the world that India – which has the third largest standing army in the world – can capitulate because of its own lack of foresight and proper appreciation of security situation in a strategic and sensitive arena.

But the critical question is this: if we continue to ignore threat perceptions issued by the army under the guise of misplaced liberalism, then what happens to the intelligence which is being laid out on a platter? The Chinese are not known for making halfhearted efforts and their focused work in Tibet has significantly added to the threat perception and war waging capabilities against India. In Tibet, China has added 20,000 km of railway tracks over the last two decades, compared to a measly 860 km by India in the same period. Here again, it is question of overlooking sensitive developments. While the Border Roads Organisation (BRO) continues to bicker over its inability to carry loads at high altitude because they do not have helicopters, a decision on it has been conveniently kept on the back burner.

Ever alert to the Chinese threat, the high committee report has systematically collated and presented relevant facts and assessments on aspects which would govern China’s geopolitical and military behaviour in the immediate foreseeable future, especially with regards to India. According to the army, the report is an appreciation of the ground situation and an attempt to put things in perspective – the developments in Ladakh have proved to be uncannily precise.

The report says that in the backdrop of key tenets of PLA’s military doctrine of Active Defence, War Zone Campaign (WZC) and recently-evolved Unrestricted Warfare - keeping in view its sectoral military aims - describes and analyses three plausible operation level scenarios which may emerge in a timeline of 2012-17. The scenarios are analysed for costs-risks-gains to China as well their military and geopolitical impact.

Critical to the Chinese plans is their War Zone Campaign (WZC) Doctrine. According to the report, the Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) has formulated military doctrine for fighting war at the operational level which it refers to a war zone. The strategic doctrine dictates that military campaign in a war zone is a series of related battles fought under a unified command to seek political capitulation of the adversary.

The report says that it involves a phased rapid yet calibrated rising of conflict threshold and force application while offering an opportunity to the adversary to capitulate and seek negotiations prior to transcending to next phase in the escalatory ladder. Military destruction and annihilation is only a means; political capitulation of the adversary remains the main objective.

The success of this doctrine is based upon preliminary lulling of the adversary into state of complacency while the PLA upgrades its readiness levels. This preliminary phase, to be executed during peace time and over prolonged periods is referred as “External Calm & Internal Intensity (ECII)”. Once PLA’s desired readiness levels are achieved and geopolitical situation is considered appropriate, the actual military campaign under a unified HQ (WZC HQ) would commence under the WZC Doctrine under three phases.

Phase 1 includes actions by ‘Elite Forces and Sharp Arms (EFSA)’ or Jingbing Liqi. In this phase, special operation forces (SOF) are deployed to gain first hand information of the battle, disrupt the enemy’s build up and make a political statement asking the adversary to back off. The aim is political victory, not territorial gain. If the adversary backs off, the WZC is considered successful.

In Phase 2, if the adversary does not capitulate through EFSA measures, the next phase is to ‘Gain Initiative by Striking First' (GISF) or Xianji Zhidi. The purpose is to prosecute ‘deep non-contact battle’ through long range precision strikes at adversary’s strategic locations and major military infrastructures. These are to be conducted in synergy with intense cyber war and other elements of asymmetric threats. The main objective is to cause decision paralysis and convince the enemy of the inevitability of military annihilation unless they capitulate and seek negotiations. This is often referred to as `winning victory with one strike.’


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
2012 : DNA National B-School Survey 2012
Ranked 1st in International Exposure (ahead of all the IIMs)
Ranked 6th Overall

Zee Business Best B-School Survey 2012
Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri’s Session at IMA Indore
IIPM IN FINANCIAL TIMES, UK. FEATURE OF THE WEEK
IIPM strong hold on Placement : 10000 Students Placed in last 5 year
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Tuesday, June 04, 2013

Back to square one

Will Musharraf's return change Pak's political scenario?

"Where are the people who said I will never return home. I have been receiving death threats and some people have been trying to scare me but I have returned home for the sake of my country and people," was Pervez Musharraf’s riposte to the skeptics who discounted his chance of return owning to the charges hanging against him. It is noteworthy that Musharraf's safe homecoming was tolerated by Asif Ali Zardari, the man who was put behind bars and later forced into exile by Musharraf himself as Pakistan’s president way back in 1999 and 2004 respectively. It is debatable whether it’s a gesture of magnanimity or a lame submission to General Kayani’s dictate, with whom Musharraf enjoys an arm’s length relationship. Despite being one of the weakest presidents of Pakistan, Zardari knows that Musharraf doesn’t present a realistic challenge for him in the upcoming general election to be held in May this year. Not because Musharraf doesn’t hold any charisma but he is endowed with too little time to establish a foothold in the heartland of Pakistan. Further, and most importantly, Zardari was helpless as a multi-participant’s deal was struck involving the army, the government of Saudi Arabia, Nawaz Sharif and Musharraf.

Musharraf’s impact on the impending polls and in Pakistan’s public life doesn’t seem too potent as the contest will be a tripartite dead-heat race among Zardari, Imran Khan and Sharif. However, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, the leadership of Indian immigrants in Pakistan, has immediately warmed up to Musharraf with open arms much to his delight in an otherwise hostile environment prevailing.

Musharraf had been a mixed bag for India – on the one hand he orchestrated the Kargil war as military general while on the other he had been instrumental in cooling Kashmir’s simmering pot as the country’s president.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles

Monday, June 03, 2013

A 20,000 tonne dilemma

It is important to increase the supply of gold to the market and reduce import levels. 

The government has recently announced an increase in the import duty on gold with a view to strengthen the external sector of the economy and shore up the value of the Indian currency. While the duty on refined gold used for jewelry has been hiked from four to six percent, that on gold dore used for industrial requirements, particularly in the refinery sector, has been raised from two to five percent. The government has taken this decision because our economy suffers from the highest current account deficit at 5.4 percent of GDP.

The problem with this policy is that it focuses solely on the demand rather than supply side economics. To that extent, such a policy change is unlikely to lower the demand for gold across the country, owing to the people’s psyche and ills of economic governance.

The traditional role of gold in Indian society is embedded as a culture of savings to meet family requirements like weddings or religious ceremonies. Besides, trading communities traditionally tend to invest in gold as a form of contingency fund to bail them out in case of potential business losses in the future. Also Hindu temples like Tirupati and Padmanabaswamy in Tiruvanthapuram are known to hold huge gold reserves. Similarly, other religious bodies also possess gold reserves. All this in a sense, suggests the centrality of gold to Indian life. Gold remains a primary investment across all socio-economic segments because of tradition, security and hedge against inflation drive demand. Acquisition of gold at this juncture, characterized by an uncertain economy, offers the investor capital appreciation unlike any other form of investment. Therefore, an enhanced demand for gold occurs when investments in real estate, stocks and shares, debt securities, besides mutual funds are unable to offset high inflation rates. Thus, gold continues to remain the most attractive form of investment.

The government’s inability to effectively curb the high inflation rate, besides other problems like low growth rate, unhealthy level of deficit finance and an alarming current account deficit has shattered people’s credibility in economic governance. Also the fact that internationally renowned credit rating agencies are contemplating to further lower the country’s investment grade, only reinforces such a line of thinking.

The country consumes 800-1000 tonnes of gold annually, which amounts to $38 billion or 20 percent of the global demand. The new measure is expected to decrease demand for gold by 10 percent. India imports gold worth over $35 billion largely from South Africa and the US for domestic consumption. Today, gold comprises 10-15 percent of India’s imports. This policy aims to reduce the widening trade and current account deficit to eventually strengthen the rupee. Today, the external value of the Indian rupee has declined in relation to the dollar, which is also India’s trading currency.

Whether adoption of such a policy would address the problem or not is improbable as this approach only tackles the symptom but not the cause. It is important to note that the price of gold in India, even before the proposed hike in import duty was seven percent higher than the international price. This proves that when demand gallops ahead of supply, higher prices are bound to prevail. Gold has a low elasticity to price and therefore, higher duties have less effect on consumption and imports.

The number of artisans employed in the gold jewelry industry across the country is estimated to be nearly two million people. If  gold’s demand drops by 10 percent, there will be a direct bearing on the unemployment levels, which in turn has the potential to create social problems like crime and suicide.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
2012 : DNA National B-School Survey 2012
Ranked 1st in International Exposure (ahead of all the IIMs)
Ranked 6th Overall

Zee Business Best B-School Survey 2012
Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri’s Session at IMA Indore
IIPM IN FINANCIAL TIMES, UK. FEATURE OF THE WEEK
IIPM strong hold on Placement : 10000 Students Placed in last 5 year
BBA Management Education

Saturday, June 01, 2013

Movie Review: I, Me Aur Main

Oh boy, what a pain!

I am the best, the protagonist of I, Me Aur Main, intones every time he is assailed by self-doubt. He does this standing before a mirror, his fists clenched like a pugilist poised to deliver the knockout punch. You expect the guy to be a man of action. Turns out he’s not. The punch never materializes. And a KO is out of the question.

When neither the plot premise nor the treatment has anything to write home about, expecting John Abraham to come up with a deadly coup de grace on behalf of this middling romantic comedy is really the height of optimism.

As the title suggests, this is about a man who cannot see beyond his nose. But he is a lucky bloke – he gets away with being a pain in the neck.

Neither this guy nor his story is particularly interesting. The narrative is crammed with predictable devices, and the women in the protagonist’s life do not seem to possess a life of their own.

Which woman worth her salt would fight to cling on to a man who lives with her for three years, refuses to pay the milkman’s bill because he drinks black coffee, and dithers endlessly when it comes to the question of solemnizing the relationship?
About the only surprise the film springs is that it does not end in a gaudy shaadi shamiana swarming with smarmy guests belting out a raucous celebratory song. Instead, the climax unfolds in a maternity ward where a baby girl is born and all is forgiven.

Directed by debutant Kapil Sharma, I, Me Aur Main revolves around a music producer (John Abraham) out of tune with the times. His live-in partner (Chitrangda Singh) tries in vain to make him take her home to mom (Zarina Wahab). When all efforts fail, she dumps him. The hero finds another woman, a fashion stylist (Prachi Desai), who is the exact opposite – bubbly and full of beans. And life goes on…

The film never springs to life, twisting through a sub-plot about the hero’s boss (Raima Sen) who, in her own words, has been hired by the music company to put him in his place. The male protagonist decides to get his own back by launching a new singer who has been rejected by the boss. He gets too many shots at redemption – by the time he gets it right, the audience has ceased to care.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles