Monday, August 27, 2012

DEREGULATION POLICY: IRRATIONAL

The govt deregulates oil prices – and takes the most dangerous step in our economic history to become a disaster prone ‘oil-shock’ economy

Though open market systems are good for oil companies (particularly private players like Essar Oil and Reliance Petroleum, who are at a disadvantage w.r.t. public sector players), it brings volatility at the consumers’ end. Immediate lessons by India can be derived from the Chinese energy market, which is based on the principle of managed-market-based economy. Gasoline prices are strictly controlled. Even the prices of key energy resources like coal are not free for the markets to decide. The National Development and Reform Comission (NDRC) of China openly interferes with the petroleum prices. The last time NDRC revised the wholesale price was in November 10, 2009.

The reality is when oil prices increase, it increases the overall cost of the economy. Moreover, when prices of crude oil go up, it also directly or indirectly increases the cost of other commodities. India has a huge consumption of around 133.40 MT of crude oil. The main reason why India was less impacted by recent recession was the controlled crude oil price policy. Imagine over 400 million middle class Indians paying for petrol at a rate of over $100 per barrel. Even India had no control over oil prices till 1973, but it didn’t pay rich dividends. One would remember that a belligerent decision to deregulate petrol prices was taken in 2002 but the government had to revise its decision later. A good parallel can be drawn with our stock markets. Till the time Indian stock exchanges were independent and separated, they were stable; the moment they were opened to the foreign players, they became volatile and left the investors vulnerable. Increase oil prices for all you must, but deregulating oil prices is clearly not the need of the hour; not now, not in the next few years – the government should immediately reverse the decision.